Statistical Data and Analysis (as of February 14)

February 7 became a symbolic day in terms of the international situation regarding territory and sovereignty.

On that day, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and US President Donald Trump met for their first summit.

According to the statement released after the meeting, the two leaders “expressed their determination to continuously cooperate to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific.” The two leaders also “reiterated their strong opposition to any attempts by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East China Sea” and “reaffirmed their strong opposition to the PRC’s unlawful maritime claims, militarization of reclaimed features, and threatening and provocative activities in the South China Sea.”

For the Taiwan issue, the two leaders “emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity for the international community.” Also, it is noteworthy that they “opposed any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force or coercion” in the context of the Taiwan issue and that they “expressed support for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organizations.”

For the Senkaku Islands, the two leaders “reaffirmed that Article V of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security applies to the Senkaku Islands, and reiterated their strong opposition to any action that seeks to undermine Japan’s longstanding and peaceful administration of the Senkaku Islands. “

It is important that the two leaders affirmed the concept of “a free and open Indo-Pacific” in this statement as the basis of the bilateral relations.  How to put this concept into practice by the two countries remains to be seen.

For the Japanese nationals, February 7 is ‘The Northern Territories Day”. Russia's illegal occupation of Japan's Northern Territories continues. In this context, it is important to note that, as reported, there is a movement within Russia to link the invasion of Ukraine with the occupation of the Northern Territories and to increase patriotic sentiment. The situation over territory and sovereignty in East Asia is directly linked to security issues on a global scale.

for FOIP  https://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/page25e_000278.html

for The Northern Territories

 https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/index.html

https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/ryodo_eg/taiou/index.html#hoppou

[Statistical Data as of February 13]

Japan Coast Guard (JCG) daily updates the statistical data on the number of China Coast Guard vessels entering in the contiguous zone around the Senkaku Islands and intruding into Japanese territorial waters. The below is from the website of JCG.

(https://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/mission/senkaku/senkaku.html)

Date

Topics

1/30

Japan Joint Staff confirmed two Russian Tu-95 bombers, one Russian Su-35 fighter, and another Russian fighter flying from the continent to the area off Cape Shiretoko, Hokkaido on January 30. These aircrafts then turned and flew back to the continent through Soya Strait.

At another time on the same day Japan Joint Staff confirmed two Russian Tu-95 bombers, one Russian Su-30 fighter, and another Russian fighter flying from the continent again to the area off Okushiri-tou Island, Hokkaido. These aircrafts then flew south to the area off Oga Peninsula, Akita over the Sea of Japan, and flew back to the continent.

While these aircrafts were flying, Japan Joint Staff also confirmed one Russian Il-38 maritime patrol aircraft flying over the Sea of Japan.

  Japan Air Self-Defense Force scrambled to these Russian aircrafts.

RED: Two Tu-95 bombers

PINK: Su-35 fighter

ORANGE: Su-30 fighter

BLUE: IL-38 patrol

(Source: Japan Joint Staff)

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Japan Joint Staff

https://www.mod.go.jp/js/pdf/2025/p20250130_01.pdf

1/31

Japan-U.S. Defense Ministerial Telephone Conference (summary)

On January 31, Defense Minister Nakatani and Defense Secretary Hegseth held a telephone conference. The summary is as follows.

At the outset, Minister Nakatani extended his condolences to those deceased and their bereaved families in the wake of aircraft accident occurred in Virginia, the United States, on January 29th.

Secretary Hegseth then offered his greetings as a new Defense Secretary. Minister Nakatani congratulated Secretary Hegseth for his appointment and said that he looks forward to working with Secretary Hegseth to further strengthen the Alliance capabilities to deter and respond amid the increasingly severe security environment in the Indo-Pacific.

The Ministers agreed to bilaterally cooperate to realize the vision of Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

The Ministers affirmed their firm intent to continue the initiatives to reinforce the Alliance, including the upgrading of respective command and control framework and expansion of bilateral presence in the southwestern region of Japan. The Ministers reaffirmed that Article V of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security applies to the Senkaku Islands.

The Ministers expressed their willingness to meet in person at the earliest possible time.

(Source: Japan Ministry of Defense)

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Ministry of Defense

https://www.mod.go.jp/en/article/2025/01/de1c4fe8d5e553dbb6396859f6e5bbbd98a74fdf.html

2/2

Some building additions have been observed on Suishou-jima Island, the Habomai Islands in the Northern Territories which have remained illegally occupied by Russia.

Looking at Suishou-jima Island, about 7 km from Cape Nosappumisak in Nemuro City, Hokkaido, a new steel tower-like structure was erected near the lighthouse that has been on the island for some time. Also, a blue-roofed building was observed to have been extended.

Russian border guards are stationed on Suishou-jima Island. For this reason, it is believed that one of the security facilities has been expanded.

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UHB News (Japanese)

https://www.uhb.jp/news/single.html?id=48358

2/3

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force confirmed two Russian Steregushchiy-class frigate (hull number 339 and 343) and one Russian Dubuna-class tanker in the water 70 km northeast of Tsushima on February 3. These vessels crossed the Tsushima Strait and navigated to the East China Sea.

(Source: Japan Joint Staff)

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Japan Joint Staff

https://www.mod.go.jp/js/pdf/2025/p20250203_01.pdf

2/3

On February 3, Japan Coast Guard and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force conducted a joint drill on the assumption of a suspicious armed special operations vessel heading for an important facility.

　 This is the 29th time that the JCG and JMSDF have conducted this kind of drill, which is based on the “National Manual for Joint Response to Unidentified Vessels” established in 1999 in response to the incident involving a suspicious vessel off the Noto Peninsula.

(Source: Japan Coast Guard)

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Japan Coast Guard

https://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/info/kouhou/r7/k250204_2/k250204_2.pdf

2/5

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force confirmed two Russian Steregushchiy-class frigate (hull number 339 and 343) and one Russian Dubuna-class tanker sailing southwest in the water 60 km north of Iriomote-jima Island (Okinawa Prefecture) on February 5. These vessels navigated to the Pacific Ocean through the water between Yonaguni-jima Island and Iriomote-jima Island. These vessels are just the same which are confirmed in the water off Tsushima on February 3.

(Source: Japan Joint Staff)

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Japan Joint Staff

https://www.mod.go.jp/js/pdf/2025/p20250205_01.pdf

2/6

Japan Joint Staff confirmed one Chinese UAV(estimated) flying from the Pacific Ocean to East China Sea through the area between Yonaguni island and Taiwan on February 5 (Red line in the below chart). Japan Joint Staff also confirmed another Chinese UAV(estimated) flying over East China Sea in the same time of the same day (Yellow line in the below chart). Japan Air Self-Defense Force scrambled to these UAVs.

(Source: Japan Joint Staff)

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Japan Joint Staff

https://www.mod.go.jp/js/pdf/2025/p20250206_01.pdf

2/6

On February 5, Japan Self-Defense Force, in showing its joint commitment to strengthen regional and international cooperation in support of a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” conducted the joint exercise with the U.S. Navy, Australian Navy and Air Force, and Philippine Navy as the Maritime Cooperative Activity by the four countries: Japan, the United States, Australia, and the Philippines.

The Maritime Cooperative Activity is an activity to support freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight and to respect the rights at sea under international law as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UCLOS).

(Source: Japan Joint Staff)

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Japan Joint Staff

https://www.mod.go.jp/js/pdf/2025/p20250206_02.pdf

2/6

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) announced that from February 10 to 18 it will conduct joint exercises with U.S. Navy, and French Navy in the waters and airspace east of the Philippines. U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier “USS Carl Vinson” and the French Navy's aircraft carrier “Charles de Gaulle” will participate in the joint exercises. The purpose of the exercise is to strengthen cooperation toward the realization of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” according to the announcement.

(Source: JMSDF)

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JMSDF

https://www.mod.go.jp/msdf/release/202502/20250206-1.pdf

2/7

On February 7, the Japanese government and related organizations held the “National Convention Demanding the Return of the Northern Territories” in Tokyo. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was absent due to a visit to the U.S., delivered a video message, saying, “It is regrettable that the territorial issue remains unresolved 80 years after the war and that no peace treaty has been concluded with Russia”. He expressed his intention to place emphasis on the resumption of visits to the graves of former islanders and to ask Russia to resume exchange programs.

The convention adopted an appeal that renewed its determination to resolve the territorial issue. The prime minister emphasized that although Japan-Russia relations have deteriorated due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he would maintain his policy of resolving the Northern Territories issue and concluding a peace treaty. He also appealed for efforts to arouse public opinion.

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Sankei News (Japanese)

https://www.sankei.com/article/20250207-Z3ZI6IELKZI2BBHXIBVN2GLX4E/

Full text of Prime Minister Ishiba's message

Prime Minister’s Office of Japan

https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/103/discourse/20250207message.html

2/7

Japanese Defense Minister Nakatani stated at a press conference, “The Russian military has deployed the latest equipment, conducted exercises and training, and continued various activities in the Northern Territories, which is our country's unique territory, under illegal occupation. We will take all possible measures for intelligence gathering, vigilance, and surveillance.

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NHK News (Japanese)

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250207/k10014715861000.html

Japan Ministry of Defense

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/press/kisha/2025/0207a.html

2/7

On February 7, a residents' convention was held in Nemuro City, Hokkaido, where many former residents of the Northern Territories live. As this year marks the 80th anniversary of the end of the war and the former islanders are aging even more, they appealed for the early return of illegally occupied islands.

On this day every year, Nemuro City holds a residents' convention, attended by former islanders and others. 750 people, including former islanders and their families, gathered at the venue in Nemuro City. Mr. Shigeji Kudo, 85 years old, a native of the the Habomai Islands, expressed his determination on behalf of the former islanders. The average age of the ex-islanders is now 89 years old, and the resolution of the territorial issue is a race against time.

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NHK News (Japanese)

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250207/k10014716001000.html

2/7

The day February 7th is ‘The Northern Territories Day’. As this year marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, which led to the Russian occupation of the Northern Territories, there are moves by the Russian government to link this to increased patriotism in Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last September unveiled a plan for a museum construction project to commemorate a Soviet military operation that led to the occupation. Moscow said last month that it will mark 2025 as "the Year of the Defender of the Fatherland." It said the designation is intended to express gratitude to Soviet and Russian soldiers who fought in World War Two, the invasion of Ukraine or other battles.

   A history and nature museum on Etorofu Island, one of the Northern Territories, showcases a Ukrainian military drone and uniform as a trophy. The facility also shares accounts that laud as a hero a Russian soldier from that island who died while fighting in Ukraine.

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NHK News (Japanese)

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250207/k10014715161000.html

2/7

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and US President Donald Trump met for their first summit. The two leaders agreed to enhance deterrence and response capabilities to achieve a free and open Indo-Pacific region.

The joint statement underlined a sense of crisis felt by both governments toward moves by China. Ishiba said, "We have confirmed that we will work closely together with each other to improve the deterrence and response capabilities of the alliance and deal with regional issues." Trump said: "The prime minister and I will be working closely together to maintain peace and security. And I also say peace through strength and all over the Indo-Pacific."

Ishiba and Trump also said they will strengthen cooperation with other countries through internatio