Vol.12, December 30, 2024

What is happening in East Asian Maritime Security? The Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS) publishes the biweekly newsletter, the information on maritime security relevant to East Asia and Japan's territory.

  Monthly Column

by

Tomohide MURAI

Honorary Professor, Tokyo International University

Threats come from Revisionist Neighbors

What is threat?

Threat is a multiplication of military capability and aggressive intent.  Therefore, in the case that the country has strong military capability but has no intention to attack Japan, then that country is not a threat to Japan. 

What is intention?  In democratic countries, the intention of the country means the intention of the people, but in dictatorship country, it means the intention of the dictator.  Looking at the present world, the intention of the country comes from the view of the world which was created by the history and culture of the country.   Considering the intention, whether the country has the revisionist worldview or the status quo worldview is the critical point for threat.  If that country has the status quo worldview, it can be said that the country is satisfied with the situation of the present world and there is a low possibility that the country would go to war and sacrifice the benefit which comes from the present world.  On the other hand, the revisionist countries are basically dissatisfied with the present world order.  And in many cases, those countries have victim complex to the neighboring countries and hate neighbors. 

Hatred and victim complex paralyze the casualty sensitivity and lower the threshold of the war. When hatred and victim complex exceed the casualty sensitivity, war begins.  

Threats to Japan

Looking at the present world, only the United States can project large scale military forces beyond neighboring countries. Even Russia and China do not have such military capabilities. On the other hand, even a small country can attack neighbors. Therefore, for all countries in the present world, neighboring countries and the U. S. can be a threat.  In the case of Japan, the U.S. and neighboring countries, such as Russia, China, ROK and DPRK are the candidate countries which can threaten Japan. 

What is the intention of the neighboring countries of Japan? 

The United States:  The fundamental national strategy of the U.S. is to become the hegemon in the world, which is “Make America Great Again.”  Now the hegemon of the world is the U. S.  Therefore, the national strategy of the U.S. is to maintain status quo.  Which means that even though the U.S. has enough military capability to attack Japan, the U.S. is not a threat to Japan.  And furthermore, the U.S. is a Japanese ally. 

Russia:  The national strategy of President Putin is “Make Russia Great Again.” What is Great Russia?  Probably for President Putin, it means USSR which was the largest Russian Empire in Russian history.  For that reason, what President Putin is thinking is to recover the USSR territories which were lost by the expansion of the West.  President Putin thinks that Russia is a victim of the expansion of the West.  Therefore, for President Putin, justice is to take back the lost USSR territories and revive Great Russia.  According to the public opinion poll in Russia last year, more than 70% of Russians supported the national strategy of President Putin. 

Where are the lost territories? Comparing the maps of USSR and present Russia, the western areas of USSR were lost.  In the image of President Putin, Ukraine, Belorussia and Baltic countries are the lost territories of Russia. For that reason, President Putin began war to redraw the borderline and recover the lost territories of USSR. But on the other hand, there is no change in eastern borderline between USSR and present Russia.  President Putin’s strategy to the eastern border is to defend the present borderline. Which means President Putin wants to maintain status quo in east Asia.  Therefore, for eastern Europe which is the western side of Russia, Russia is a serious threat to the security. But for the country of eastern side of Russia, basically Russia is a status quo power. 

North Korea: The most important objective of DPRK government is to defend the present regime in north Korea. The Constitution of DPRK said the most important national objective was reunification of the Korean Peninsula. But comparing the north and south economies, south Korean economy is more than ten times larger than that of north Korea. And in these days, even in military capability, south Korea has advantage.  In reality there is no possibility for north Korea to occupy south Korea in near future. 

Under these circumstances, DPRK dictator Kim Jong-Un has changed the constitution, and declared that DPRK is an independent country. To show his determination to go as an independent country and he has no intention to invade south Korea, he blew up the roads and railways which connected north and south Korea. North Korea has transformed into a defensive status quo country from an aggressive revisionist country. 

South Korea: South Korea has the same constitution as north Korea, which says the final goal of south Korean national strategy is reunification of Korean peninsula.  But now in south Korea, there is no atmosphere of pursuing reunification at the expense of economic prosperity.  Now south Korean people give priority to economic prosperity rather than legitimate national reunification.  South Korea wants status quo. 

China: Slogan of the Chinese Communist Party is “Make China Great Again.” What is Great China? Looking at the history of China, the largest Chinese Empire was Qin Dinasty in 19th century.  For that reason, for many Chinese people, the image of Great China is Qin Dynasty which occupied one third of world GDP in 19th century.  Then what is the deference between Qin and present China?  Looking at the territories of these two countries, present China lost the eastern and southern part of Chinse Empire (Qin). Therefore, for Chinese people’s image, to become Great China means to recover the territories of Qin Dynasty. Actually what China is doing now is not to change the borderline, but to expand its sphere of influence in east and south Asia.  In the case of Japan, China is now trying to change the borderline with Japan. This strategy is clearly a revisionist strategy and directly threaten Japanese security.   

Conclusion

Considering the situation of neighboring countries and the U.S., China is the only country which is trying to change the status quo surrounding Japan.  And China has enough military capability to threaten Japan.  Therefore, for the security of the country, Japan needs to prepare for the threat from China.